Changing Attitudes: Do Nuclear Weapons Make Us Safer?
It’s hard to really know what Americans think about nuclear weapons.
First of all, there’s a kind of taboo on the subject. If you don’t believe me, go to a party and try to casually start a conversation about nuclear war. Or even better, chat someone up at the bus stop, or in line at the grocery store, and then steer the conversation to nuclear weapons. People are willing to talk about how climate change will bring about the end of the world. And a remarkable number will talk about the possibility of a “zombie apocalypse.” But don’t try to get them going on nuclear war. They look at you as if to say, “Are you a weirdo or something?”, shut down, and turn away.
Second of all, nuclear weapons are not only weapons, they’re also symbols of scientific prowess, prestige, and international status. It’s hard to get a bead on an object that is both a piece of military equipment and a symbol. When you ask a question, are people thinking about the warhead on the missile or the symbol of American greatness?
So it’s hard to know where Americans really are on nuclear weapons.
But the latest report from the Pew Research Center on the subject (a poll published in July) sheds unusual light on the subject. Some of the response are pretty much what you’d expect. But another set of responses show a stunning and surprising reversal. The numbers you’d expect include whether nuclear weapons have made the world safer.
These results aren’t that surprising. Americans have been saying that nuclear weapons make everyone in the world less safe for decades. A YouGov poll from 2024, for example, found essentially the same results.
YouGov had 63% saying nuclear weapons make the world more dangerous and the Pew Research poll had 69% . The Pew Research poll is a little higher, but these numbers have often fluctuated over time. What’s startling is the answer to another, similar question: Do nuclear weapons make the United States safer? The YouGov poll from 2024 found that on the whole people thought nuclear weapons do make the United States safer.
The poll found that by a 14% margin, more Americans thought nuclear weapons made the United States safer. But just one year later the Pew Research poll had a radically different result.
In 2024 only 22% of Americans said that nuclear weapons made the United States less safe. In 2025 that number had more than doubled. In the Pew Research poll the number of Americans who feel that nuclear weapons make the United States less safe went from less than a quarter to just shy of a majority.
Think about that. By a two to one margin, Americans with an opinion now feel that nuclear weapons make the United States less safe. The weapon that we currently rely on for our safety and survival is judged by nearly half of all Americans to make us less safe.
For decades polling has shown that 60-70% of Americans don’t really like nuclear weapons and would get rid of them if there was a safe way to do it. But most think getting rid of them is impossible. The remarkable and sudden shift reported by the Pew Research Center is breathtaking.
Of course, without in-depth research, it’s not possible to know why Americans feel so much less secure with nuclear weapons. It’s always possible that the results are different because of the way the questions are worded (“make you feel safer” v. “made the U.S. less safe”). It might be due to other polling issues.
But let me offer my own suspicion. One possible explanation is that many people feel we’re in increasingly deep and dangerous waters. The war in Ukraine seems more and more dangerous. Now there have been Russian drones shot down over Poland and Poland is asking NATO to consider a response. The ongoing fighting and apparently endless killing of civilians in the Middle East makes people feel there is no end to the violence. The conclusion that the U.S. government is hopelessly deadlocked and that our leaders are not up to handling the task of keeping us safe seems increasingly inescapable.
For some people, I’m guessing, there is a feeling that events are spinning faster and faster and will all too soon be out of control.
Nuclear weapons have always been dangerous and the possibility of nuclear war has always been present. But maybe this abrupt shift is evidence that Americans are willing to live with the risk of nuclear war as long as their government seems to be stable, careful, and deliberate. When the world is steady, nuclear war is a risk we’re willing to run. But when things seem to be spinning beyond our grasp, the latent fear of nuclear war rises up into people’s consciousness and increases their fear and uncertainty about the wisdom of keeping nuclear weapons.
On the other hand, maybe it’s just rounding error.
I had to delete my previous comment because Substack truncated it without any warning.
These "relative safety polls" bother me because they have little to no impact on actual policy; that might just be me. However, everything has changed since October 2022, and with Trump's second term, there is not enough space to write about it here.
I will bet, though, that if you asked people if they believed we eventually have to get rid of nuclear weapons, I am sure the majority will all say, "of course." So, what you will find is that this is all a matter of timing and that most people find it easier to kick the can down the road. Is that not what we have already done when it came to environmental degradation? How well has that worked?
You convinced me. I was wondering what answer you would give, and then was saying to myself: of course. We feel less safe about anything, and the only helpful thing about that awful feeling is that, like all danger, we feel the greatest danger most